Future forecasting always seems like a bit of a dark art - how does it work? What elements do businesses and individuals need to take into account to better prepare for the future?

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I find it fascinating speaking to people about where they think the future is going. I think one of the key elements for people who spend their time making these strategic decisions is looking for the little things that are already happening and then thinking, where could that get bigger? 

Fifteen years ago, I don't think many people were necessarily talking about social media being as big as it is now. That's been the big technological trend of the last fifteen years - to quote Peter Thiel, CEO of Paypal, “we wanted flying cars and all we got was 140 characters.” 

One thing to watch out for is that it can very easily become a case of reinforcement bias. You pick the things that you want to happen or that you enjoy doing, and you predict those as the future. 

How the world is changing fascinates me. I've always enjoyed how geopolitics and technology and the economy fit together. One of my favorite podcast episodes was with Sky News' Economics Correspondent, Ed Conway, talking about his book, Material World. He was explaining how the materials in the world are shifting and changing, for example, South America is becoming more important due to its lithium and ability to power batteries. That's a huge shift away from the Middle East, which has dominated the last 70 years because of oil. 

So you take these small things and look at them in the context of other predictors. In this case, you could say that we're all using batteries more and battery storage is going to be a bigger thing. You keep following these steps until you reach a prediction about the future. 

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The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the way we work, particularly in terms of flexible working patterns. What do you think is next in terms of the future of work post-pandemic?

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I think the future of work debate is endlessly fascinating. A lot has settled down now, post-pandemic. Most people in so-called ‘white collar jobs’, have settled into a pattern, for example, three days in the office, two days remote. 

The pandemic was a great time of reflection for lots of people. I’ve done a TED Talk on status and the huge role our jobs play in our identities. This is still the case; worker status is still important following the pandemic, but the stakes are changing in terms of what people want. For many people now, status is about the ability to switch off; to have boundaries. 

The status of where people want to work is changing as well. If you look at the mid-noughties, when people graduated, financial services and investment banking were the ‘big thing.’ 

Those industries obviously went through huge problems with the financial crash and it became the technology firms and consultancies that held that status. Now, I think people do still want those big companies on their CV, but it’s rapidly changing. They might do that for a few years, but it’s a means to an end. It’s more transactional. 

Where are we heading next? One of the questions I get asked the most is, what are the jobs that won’t change in the future? Which jobs are future-proof? We have to remember that seven out of every eight jobs in the United Kingdom are in the private sector. The private sector’s job is to create a product, market that product and sell that product to people for more than it cost to make it. The irony of that is none of it has changed. 

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Is there an industry that you believe is overdue for a big shake-up?

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Education. We haven't really updated the education system in about 100 years. 

I think that AI and the ability to self-teach will make a real difference. Podcasts are a great example: most people who study history in the United Kingdom will have studied World War Two. I remember when I was at school, the fast track to top marks was being able to quote an outside textbook. Now? Al Murray has a podcast that's got 600 episodes on World War Two, there’s History Hit by Dan Snow, and so many others. 

Whatever you’re interested in, there is a very rich learning environment readily available to you.

History is just one example, with every single subject there is this opportunity to completely immerse yourself - and this is only going to grow. There will be more and more quality content, most of it far more engaging than a textbook. 

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Are the headlines right about the potential impact of AI on the job market?

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I think the biggest question is, what new jobs will AI create? So much of the discourse is on what jobs it might replace. Just as social media created an army of social media managers and content creators, there will be a whole new range of jobs created by AI. We don’t know what they are yet; no one does. But I think that is what people don’t consider - instead of asking what it will take away, we should be looking at what it could potentially create. 

There are also a number of examples of AI making the productive more productive - live transcription services for interviews like this one are a good example. 

The real challenge is going to be for entry-level roles, people like investment bankers and lawyers in their 20s. They’re being trained in fitness and stamina, showing their metal and building the resilience they’ll need in that industry. But a lot of what they are doing can be done by AI. So how do they prove themselves?

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You spent several years working in government, advising the Prime Minister. How do you handle working in such a high-stakes, fast-moving environment?

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It’s incredibly difficult and it taught me a lot. Your judgment is being tested every day. 

You’re being fed so much information constantly, it’s like trying to drink from a firehose. At the same time you’re also trying to make things happen yourself and get your agenda delivered. 

Just like with any job, it’s about making sure you have clarity on what really matters and constantly thinking about what can realistically be achieved. It definitely takes time to get used to that, but this is where experience matters over talent. So much of it is about reading the room.

The other thing that I didn’t consider until later is the importance of maintaining your physical fitness. Obviously it’s a very mentally demanding job, but it's also quite physically demanding and you’re working very long hours. I think we often underestimate that side of things. Taking better care of yourself in that regard is so important. 

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You’ve interviewed some fascinating people on your podcast. Was there one guest in particular who really changed your perspective and made you think differently?

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The one that probably changed my outlook the most was a guy called Sam Grice from Octopus Legacy, a company that aims to simplify the will process after a loved one dies. 

He started the company after his mum died, and [in the podcast interview] he spoke about his experiences. I remember thinking beforehand that it might be an uncomfortable or difficult conversation, but actually he put me completely at ease and we were talking about his mother's death within the first few seconds of the interview. 

Afterwards I actually used the product. You write a message to your family, for them to read after you’re gone. It actually brought me a great deal of peace; I enjoyed writing it and it left me feeling very grateful for everything I have. So that interview had a big impact on me, which is interesting, particularly as I started out slightly apprehensive about it. 

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‍Any final words of advice?

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I believe what is key for businesses is the ability to step back from the day to day, to keep having conversations and thinking strategically about where the future is going. As a speaker, I aim to inspire and facilitate these crucial conversations. 

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